UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Jones vs Hamill

2,377

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
94% chance Jones
WILL WIN

1,906

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.3 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 193 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much better submission offense 8.2 vs 6.5 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly younger 29 years vs 40 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly stronger jaw 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Taller 193 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better takedown defense 9.9 vs 9.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Slightly better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Matt Hamill
From what we can tell, Jon Jones dominates Matt Hamill in every way.
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hamill’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Jones Hamill
Significant Strikes109
Jones's excellent striking offense will dominate Hamill's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Jones's excellent takedown offense is matched by Hamill's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Hamill on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Matt
Hamill
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Hamill Jones
Significant Strikes47
Hamill's good striking offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Hamill's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hamill is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hamill is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hamill is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Hamill 8.9
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Hamill 8.7
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Hamill 7.9
Great knockouts by Jones
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
Round 3 Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Round 1 Aug 01, 2010 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Hamill 6.5
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Hamill 7.9
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 5, 2009TUF 10 Finale
team
VS
team
XR1 DQ
DECX
1,8941,844
1,8361,901
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Hamill
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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