UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Jones vs Struve

2,377

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
90% chance Jones
WILL WIN

1,990

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 7.3 Around 30% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.2 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 9.6 vs 8.4 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better takedown defense 9.9 vs 8.5 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger jaw 9.7 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly heavier hands 8.5 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission offense 8.2 vs 8.0 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Stefan Struve
Much taller 213 cm vs 193 cm More than 10% taller
Significantly heavier 264 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 30% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Struve’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 10:19, how much damage will he do? Jones Struve
Significant Strikes76
Jones's excellent striking offense will dominate Struve's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 93 Significant Strikes in 10:19
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Jones's excellent takedown offense will dominate Struve's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:19
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Struve on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Stefan
Struve
In 10:19, how much damage will he do? Struve Jones
Significant Strikes23
Struve's average striking offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 93 Significant Strikes in 10:19
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Struve's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:19
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Struve has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Struve is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Struve is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Struve 8.4
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Struve 7.3
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Struve 8.1
Great knockouts by Jones
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
Round 3 Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Round 1 Aug 01, 2010 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Struve 8.0
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Struve 8.8
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Struve
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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