UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Jones vs Miocic

2,377

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
83% chance Jones
WILL WIN

2,101

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much longer winning streak 13 fights vs 4 fights 3.2x longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Much better submission offense 8.2 vs 6.6 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.4 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.9 vs 8.7 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 9.6 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly stronger jaw 9.7 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly longer reach 215 cm vs 203 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 29 years vs 34 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Stipe Miocic
Significantly heavier hands 9.1 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly heavier 244 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Miocic’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 11:17, how much damage will he do? Jones Miocic
Significant Strikes80
Jones's excellent striking offense will dominate Miocic's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:17
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Jones's excellent takedown offense will dominate Miocic's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:17
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Miocic on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Stipe
Miocic
In 11:17, how much damage will he do? Miocic Jones
Significant Strikes37
Miocic's excellent striking offense is matched by Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:17
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Miocic's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:17
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Miocic has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Miocic is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Miocic is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Miocic 8.9
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Miocic 8.7
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Miocic 9.1
Great knockouts by Miocic
Round 2 May 26, 2012 vs del Rosario
Round 1 Feb 15, 2012 vs De Fries
Round 1 Feb 16, 2008 vs Stansbury

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Miocic 6.6
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Miocic 8.9
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Miocic
Read More
Jones vs St. Pierre
Fantasy Cage Match
Miocic vs Velasquez
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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