UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Jones vs Machida

2,377

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
77% chance Jones
WILL WIN

2,164

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much better submission offense 8.2 vs 6.8 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.0 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 9.6 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 188 cm Around 15% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly younger 29 years vs 38 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better takedown defense 9.9 vs 9.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Advantages for Lyoto Machida
Significantly harder to hit 10.0 vs 9.6 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Machida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Jones Machida
Significant Strikes58
Jones's excellent striking offense is matched by Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Jones's excellent takedown offense is matched by Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Machida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Lyoto
Machida
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Machida Jones
Significant Strikes43
Machida's good striking offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Machida's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Machida has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Machida is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Machida has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Machida 8.7
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Machida 8.0
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Machida 8.6
Great knockouts by Machida
Round 1 Oct 26, 2013 vs Munoz
Round 2 May 23, 2009 vs Evans
Round 1 Jan 31, 2009 vs Silva

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Machida 6.8
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Machida 8.2
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 10, 2011UFC 140
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
R1 KOX
2,1532,127
2,1992,081
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Machida
Read More
Jones vs St. Pierre
Fantasy Cage Match
Machida vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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