UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Jones vs Bader

2,377

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
85% chance Jones
WILL WIN

2,073

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 188 cm Around 15% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better striker 9.6 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.1 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better submission offense 8.2 vs 7.3 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 9.9 vs 9.2 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger jaw 9.7 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.6 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 193 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 29 years vs 33 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 9.6 vs 9.4 Almost the same
Advantages for Ryan Bader
From what we can tell, Jon Jones dominates Ryan Bader in every way.
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Bader’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 9:33, how much damage will he do? Jones Bader
Significant Strikes49
Jones's excellent striking offense is matched by Bader's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:33
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Jones's excellent takedown offense is matched by Bader's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:33
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Bader on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ryan
Bader
In 9:33, how much damage will he do? Bader Jones
Significant Strikes27
Bader's good striking offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:33
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Bader's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:33
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Bader is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Bader is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Bader has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Bader 8.7
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Bader 8.7
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Bader 7.6
Great knockouts by Jones
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
Round 3 Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Round 1 Aug 01, 2010 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Bader 7.4
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Bader 8.1
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 5, 2011UFC 126
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
XDEC
1,9642,027
2,0231,968
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Bader
Read More
Jones vs Miocic
Fantasy Cage Match
Bader vs Gustafsson
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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