UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Jones vs Aldo

2,377

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
60% chance Jones
WILL WIN

2,308

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much better submission offense 8.2 vs 6.6 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 178 cm More than 20% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 7.9 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much taller 193 cm vs 170 cm Around 15% taller
Better striker 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier 205 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 40% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Significantly harder to hit 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger jaw 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better takedown defense 9.9 vs 9.5 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.8 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 12:20, how much damage will he do? Jones Aldo
Significant Strikes70
Jones's excellent striking offense is matched by Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 111 Significant Strikes in 12:20
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Jones's excellent takedown offense is matched by Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:20
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 12:20, how much damage will he do? Aldo Jones
Significant Strikes39
Aldo's good striking offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 111 Significant Strikes in 12:20
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Aldo's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:20
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Aldo 8.9
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Aldo 7.9
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Aldo 8.8
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Aldo 6.6
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Aldo 8.7
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Aldo
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 1 comment.
LOL, the default for every match up on this site so far, 'winner by KO in round 3'
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