UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Jones vs Diaz

2,377

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
79% chance Jones
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 7.6 Around 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.4 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.9 vs 8.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 193 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 205 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission offense 8.2 vs 8.0 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 30 years vs 34 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly heavier hands 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.8 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.6 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 9.7 vs 9.6 Almost the same
Slightly stronger jaw 9.8 vs 9.7 Almost the same
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Jones Diaz
Significant Strikes108
Jones's excellent striking offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Jones's excellent takedown offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Jones
Significant Strikes77
Diaz's excellent striking offense is matched by Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Diaz 9.7
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Diaz 7.6
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Diaz 8.4
Great knockouts by Jones
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
Round 3 Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Round 1 Aug 01, 2010 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Diaz 8.0
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Diaz 8.7
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Diaz
Read More
Jones vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Diaz vs Diaz
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus