UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Jones vs Nurmagomedov

2,377

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
74% chance Jones
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 178 cm More than 20% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better striker 9.6 vs 8.6 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.7 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.9 vs 9.0 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
A lot taller 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% taller
Significantly stronger jaw 9.7 vs 8.8 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly heavier 205 lbs vs 155 lbs More than 30% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Significantly fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission offense 8.2 vs 7.8 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much longer winning streak 24 fights vs 13 fights Around 85% longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.8 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 10:43, how much damage will he do? Jones Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes67
Jones's excellent striking offense will dominate Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 97 Significant Strikes in 10:43
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Jones's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:43
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 10:43, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Jones
Significant Strikes29
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 97 Significant Strikes in 10:43
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:43
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
Great knockouts by Jones
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
Round 3 Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Round 1 Aug 01, 2010 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Nurmagomedov
Read More
Jones vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Nurmagomedov vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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