UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Castillo vs Johnson

2,001

CageRank

WINNER
Johnson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
53% chance Johnson
WILL WIN

2,023

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Michael Johnson
Younger 32 years vs 39 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.0 vs 7.7 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Longer reach 187 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Slightly taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Danny Castillo
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.8 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.6 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission offense 6.7 vs 6.6 Almost the same
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Castillo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Johnson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Johnson Castillo
Significant Strikes51
Johnson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Castillo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Johnson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Castillo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Castillo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Danny
Castillo
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Castillo Johnson
Significant Strikes64
Castillo's average striking offense is matched by Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Castillo's excellent takedown offense will dominate Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Castillo is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Castillo is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Castillo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Johnson 8.6
fighter Castillo 8.4
Great striking by Johnson
22 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Tibau
116 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Lauzon
17 strikes Oct 05, 2012 vs Castillo

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Johnson 7.8
fighter Castillo 9.2
Great takedowns by Castillo
6 takedowns Jul 27, 2013 vs Means
4 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Sass
5 takedowns Mar 03, 2011 vs Stevenson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Johnson 8.3
fighter Castillo 7.9
Great knockouts by Johnson
Round 2 Dec 28, 2013 vs Tibau
Round 2 Oct 05, 2012 vs Castillo
Round 1 Oct 03, 2009 vs Derrow

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Johnson 6.6
fighter Castillo 6.8
Great submissions by Castillo
Round 1 May 17, 2008 vs Hill
Round 1 Dec 22, 2007 vs Jara
Round 1 Nov 11, 2007 vs Terry

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Johnson 8.0
fighter Castillo 7.7
Fast finishes by Johnson
392 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Tibau
366 seconds Oct 05, 2012 vs Castillo
196 seconds Apr 10, 2009 vs French
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 5, 2012UFC on FX 5
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
DECX
1,9711,883
1,9091,946
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Johnson
legend Castillo
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus