UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Castillo vs Barboza

2,001

CageRank

WINNER
Barboza

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
57% chance Barboza
WILL WIN

2,053

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Edson Barboza
Better striker 9.1 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 9.1 vs 7.9 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.6 vs 7.7 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly longer reach 191 cm vs 180 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 31 years vs 38 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Danny Castillo
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.6 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Barboza on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Castillo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Edson
Barboza
In 11:35, how much damage will he do? Barboza Castillo
Significant Strikes53
Barboza's excellent striking offense is matched by Castillo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:35
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Barboza's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Castillo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:35
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barboza has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Barboza is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Barboza is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Castillo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barboza’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Danny
Castillo
In 11:35, how much damage will he do? Castillo Barboza
Significant Strikes58
Castillo's average striking offense is matched by Barboza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:35
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Castillo's excellent takedown offense will dominate Barboza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:35
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Castillo is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Castillo is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Castillo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Barboza 9.1
fighter Castillo 8.4
Great striking by Barboza
43 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Castillo
26 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Martins
47 strikes Jan 14, 2012 vs Etim

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Barboza 7.6
fighter Castillo 9.2
Great takedowns by Castillo
6 takedowns Jul 27, 2013 vs Means
4 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Sass
5 takedowns Mar 03, 2011 vs Stevenson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Barboza 9.1
fighter Castillo 7.9
Great knockouts by Barboza
Round 2 Jul 06, 2013 vs Oliveira
Round 1 Jan 19, 2013 vs Martins
Round 3 Jan 14, 2012 vs Etim

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Barboza 6.7
fighter Castillo 6.8
Great submissions by Castillo
Round 1 May 17, 2008 vs Hill
Round 1 Dec 22, 2007 vs Jara
Round 1 Nov 11, 2007 vs Terry

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Barboza 8.7
fighter Castillo 7.7
Fast finishes by Barboza
404 seconds Jul 06, 2013 vs Oliveira
158 seconds Jan 19, 2013 vs Martins
722 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Etim
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 14, 2013UFC on Fox 9
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
DECX
2,0172,006
1,9652,057
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Barboza
legend Castillo
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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