UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Castillo vs Miller

2,001

CageRank

WINNER
Miller

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
63% chance Miller
WILL WIN

2,097

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jim Miller
Much better submission offense 8.9 vs 6.7 More than 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.7 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 34 years vs 38 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Advantages for Danny Castillo
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.1 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 175 cm vs 173 cm Almost the same
Miller on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Castillo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jim
Miller
In 11:17, how much damage will he do? Miller Castillo
Significant Strikes34
Miller's average striking offense won't be a factor against Castillo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:17
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Miller's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Castillo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:17
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Miller is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Miller has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Miller is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Castillo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Miller’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Danny
Castillo
In 11:17, how much damage will he do? Castillo Miller
Significant Strikes46
Castillo's average striking offense is matched by Miller's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:17
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Castillo's excellent takedown offense will dominate Miller's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:17
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Castillo is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Castillo is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Castillo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Miller 8.4
fighter Castillo 8.4
Great striking by Castillo
25 strikes Jul 27, 2013 vs Means
38 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs Sass
55 strikes Mar 03, 2011 vs Stevenson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Miller 8.6
fighter Castillo 9.2
Great takedowns by Castillo
6 takedowns Jul 27, 2013 vs Means
4 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Sass
5 takedowns Mar 03, 2011 vs Stevenson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Miller 7.1
fighter Castillo 7.9
Great knockouts by Castillo
Round 1 Nov 19, 2011 vs Bailey
Round 1 Dec 16, 2010 vs Kerr
Round 2 Aug 09, 2009 vs Lamas

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Miller 8.9
fighter Castillo 6.8
Great submissions by Miller
Round 1 Jan 20, 2012 vs Guillard
Round 1 Dec 11, 2010 vs Oliveira
Round 3 Oct 18, 2008 vs Baron

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Miller 8.7
fighter Castillo 7.7
Fast finishes by Miller
184 seconds Jan 20, 2012 vs Guillard
119 seconds Dec 11, 2010 vs Oliveira
799 seconds Oct 18, 2008 vs Baron
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 25, 2015UFC on Fox 16
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Miller
legend Castillo
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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