UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Castillo vs Cerrone

2,001

CageRank

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
77% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

2,206

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 6.7 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 7.7 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 34 years vs 37 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Danny Castillo
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.0 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Castillo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 9:48, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Castillo
Significant Strikes43
Cerrone's excellent striking offense is matched by Castillo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 88 Significant Strikes in 9:48
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cerrone's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Castillo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:48
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Castillo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Danny
Castillo
In 9:48, how much damage will he do? Castillo Cerrone
Significant Strikes48
Castillo's average striking offense is matched by Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 88 Significant Strikes in 9:48
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Castillo's excellent takedown offense will dominate Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:48
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Castillo is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Castillo is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Castillo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Castillo 8.4
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Castillo 9.2
Great takedowns by Castillo
6 takedowns Jul 27, 2013 vs Means
4 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Sass
5 takedowns Mar 03, 2011 vs Stevenson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Castillo 7.9
Great knockouts by Cerrone
Round 1 Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
Round 1 Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
Round 1 Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Castillo 6.8
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Castillo 7.7
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 1, 2008WEC 34
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR2 SUB
1,6631,787
1,6301,820
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Castillo
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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