UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cote vs Alves

2,042

CageRank

WINNER
Alves

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
51% chance Alves
WILL WIN

2,049

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Thiago Alves
Significantly better takedown defense 8.6 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.2 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Younger 33 years vs 37 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly better submission offense 6.9 vs 6.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Patrick Cote
Much longer reach 191 cm vs 178 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Stronger jaw 9.4 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Alves on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cote’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thiago
Alves
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Alves Cote
Significant Strikes92
Alves's excellent striking offense will dominate Cote's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Alves's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cote's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alves is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alves is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alves has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Cote on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alves’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Patrick
Cote
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Cote Alves
Significant Strikes72
Cote's good striking offense may be a factor against Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cote's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cote is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cote is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cote has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alves 9.0
fighter Cote 8.7
Great striking by Alves
80 strikes Oct 25, 2008 vs Koscheck
10 strikes Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
17 strikes Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alves 7.9
fighter Cote 7.2
Great takedowns by Alves
2 takedowns Dec 11, 2010 vs Howard
1 takedown Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
1 takedown Nov 19, 2005 vs Chalangov

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alves 8.0
fighter Cote 8.0
Great knockouts by Alves
Round 2 Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
Round 2 Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan
Round 2 Nov 17, 2007 vs Lytle

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alves 6.9
fighter Cote 6.8
Great submissions by Alves
Round 1 Nov 05, 2011 vs Abedi
Round 1 Nov 20, 2004 vs Chambers

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alves 8.3
fighter Cote 8.4
Fast finishes by Cote
164 seconds Mar 31, 2012 vs Machado
104 seconds Jan 23, 2008 vs McFedries
21 seconds May 22, 2004 vs Mahood
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alves
legend Cote
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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