UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Daley vs Kitaoka

2,017

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Daley

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
50% chance Daley
WILL WIN

2,015

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Paul Daley
Much heavier hands 9.5 vs 5.4 More than 75% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Taller 175 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% taller
Better takedown defense 8.4 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 170 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.4 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 35 years vs 38 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Satoru Kitaoka
Much better submission offense 8.1 vs 6.3 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.2 vs 7.6 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission defense 9.9 vs 9.4 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Daley on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Kitaoka’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Paul
Daley
In 12:03, how much damage will he do? Daley Kitaoka
Significant Strikes65
Daley's good striking offense may be a factor against Kitaoka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 12:03
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Daley's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Kitaoka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:03
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Daley has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Daley is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Daley is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Kitaoka on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Daley’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Satoru
Kitaoka
In 12:03, how much damage will he do? Kitaoka Daley
Significant Strikes37
Kitaoka's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Daley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 12:03
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Kitaoka's average takedown offense is matched by Daley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:03
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Kitaoka is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Kitaoka has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Kitaoka has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Daley 8.7
fighter Kitaoka 8.0
Great striking by Daley
17 strikes Dec 04, 2010 vs Smith
8 strikes Jan 02, 2010 vs Hazelett
27 strikes Sep 19, 2009 vs Kampmann

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Daley 7.6
fighter Kitaoka 8.3
Great takedowns by Kitaoka
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Freire

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Daley 9.5
fighter Kitaoka 5.4
Great knockouts by Daley
Round 1 Jan 02, 2010 vs Hazelett
Round 1 Sep 19, 2009 vs Kampmann
Round 2 Dec 05, 2008 vs Alessio

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Daley 6.3
fighter Kitaoka 8.1
Great submissions by Kitaoka
Round 1 Jan 04, 2009 vs Gomi
Round 1 Nov 01, 2008 vs Mitsuoka
Round 1 Aug 24, 2008 vs French

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Daley 8.8
fighter Kitaoka 8.1
Fast finishes by Daley
144 seconds Jan 02, 2010 vs Hazelett
151 seconds Sep 19, 2009 vs Kampmann
438 seconds Dec 05, 2008 vs Alessio
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 27, 2006Pancrase - Blow 6
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
DECX
1,8101,799
1,7581,851
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Daley
legend Kitaoka
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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