UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Carvalho vs Elkins

1,860

CageRank

WINNER
Elkins

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
67% chance Elkins
WILL WIN

1,986

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Darren Elkins
Significantly harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.8 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 8.5 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 178 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 33 years vs 38 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Fast finishes 8.0 vs 7.8 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission offense 7.1 vs 6.8 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better takedown defense 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Advantages for Antonio Carvalho
Significantly better striker 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Elkins on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Carvalho’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Darren
Elkins
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Elkins Carvalho
Significant Strikes73
Elkins's average striking offense may be a factor against Carvalho's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Elkins's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Carvalho's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Elkins has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Elkins is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Elkins has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Carvalho on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Elkins’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Carvalho
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Carvalho Elkins
Significant Strikes69
Carvalho's good striking offense may be a factor against Elkins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Carvalho's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Elkins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Carvalho is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Carvalho is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Carvalho is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Elkins 8.3
fighter Carvalho 8.7
Great striking by Carvalho
48 strikes Nov 17, 2012 vs Damm
10 strikes Jul 21, 2012 vs Pineda

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Elkins 8.4
fighter Carvalho 7.8
Great takedowns by Elkins
2 takedowns Aug 28, 2013 vs Hioki
6 takedowns Nov 17, 2012 vs Siler
1 takedown Jun 11, 2011 vs Omigawa

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Elkins 7.6
fighter Carvalho 7.7
Great knockouts by Carvalho
Round 1 Jul 21, 2012 vs Pineda
Round 1 Jun 19, 2010 vs Barrantes
Round 2 Feb 17, 2006 vs Sato

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Elkins 7.1
fighter Carvalho 6.8
Great submissions by Elkins
Round 1 Aug 15, 2008 vs Klein
Round 1 Aug 24, 2007 vs Tsuboi
Round 1 Jan 24, 2007 vs Markam

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Elkins 8.0
fighter Carvalho 7.8
Fast finishes by Elkins
186 seconds Mar 16, 2013 vs Carvalho
44 seconds Mar 21, 2010 vs Ludwig
115 seconds Aug 24, 2007 vs Tsuboi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 16, 2013UFC 158
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XDEC
1,8942,011
1,8602,045
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Elkins
legend Carvalho
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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