UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Carvalho vs Pineda

1,860

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Carvalho

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
66% chance Carvalho
WILL WIN

1,743

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Antonio Carvalho
Significantly heavier hands 7.7 vs 7.0 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 173 cm vs 170 cm Almost the same
Slightly longer reach 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Slightly better striker 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Daniel Pineda
Much better submission offense 8.3 vs 6.8 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger jaw 8.8 vs 7.7 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly fast finishes 8.3 vs 7.8 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.8 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Younger 32 years vs 38 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Carvalho on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Pineda’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Carvalho
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Carvalho Pineda
Significant Strikes76
Carvalho's good striking offense may be a factor against Pineda's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Carvalho's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Pineda's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Carvalho is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Carvalho is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Carvalho has a chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Pineda on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Carvalho’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Daniel
Pineda
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Pineda Carvalho
Significant Strikes83
Pineda's average striking offense may be a factor against Carvalho's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Pineda's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Carvalho's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Pineda has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Pineda has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Pineda is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Carvalho 8.7
fighter Pineda 8.6
Great striking by Carvalho
48 strikes Nov 17, 2012 vs Damm
10 strikes Jul 21, 2012 vs Pineda

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Carvalho 7.8
fighter Pineda 8.4
Great takedowns by Pineda
2 takedowns Apr 13, 2013 vs Lawrence
1 takedown Jan 20, 2012 vs Schilling

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Carvalho 7.7
fighter Pineda 7.1
Great knockouts by Carvalho
Round 1 Jul 21, 2012 vs Pineda
Round 1 Jun 19, 2010 vs Barrantes
Round 2 Feb 17, 2006 vs Sato

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Carvalho 6.8
fighter Pineda 8.3
Great submissions by Pineda
Round 1 Jan 20, 2012 vs Schilling
Round 3 Jul 22, 2011 vs Gomez
Round 1 Jan 29, 2011 vs Forrest

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Carvalho 7.8
fighter Pineda 8.3
Fast finishes by Pineda
126 seconds Mar 03, 2012 vs Semerzier
97 seconds Jan 20, 2012 vs Schilling
169 seconds Jan 29, 2011 vs Forrest
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 21, 2012UFC 149
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR2 KO
1,7861,870
1,8481,808
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Carvalho
legend Pineda
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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