UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Swanson vs Diaz

2,134

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Swanson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
61% chance Swanson
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Cub Swanson
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.8 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.3 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 183 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 7.9 vs 7.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 32 years vs 34 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Swanson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cub
Swanson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Swanson Diaz
Significant Strikes67
Swanson's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Swanson's average takedown offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Swanson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Swanson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Swanson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Swanson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Swanson
Significant Strikes87
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Swanson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Diaz's below average takedown offense is matched by Swanson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Swanson 8.6
fighter Diaz 9.3
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Swanson 8.3
fighter Diaz 7.8
Great takedowns by Swanson
1 takedown Jul 06, 2013 vs Siver
2 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Poirier
2 takedowns Jan 28, 2012 vs Roop

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Swanson 8.4
fighter Diaz 7.4
Great knockouts by Swanson
Round 3 Jul 06, 2013 vs Siver
Round 1 Sep 22, 2012 vs Oliveira
Round 2 Jun 22, 2012 vs Pearson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Swanson 7.3
fighter Diaz 8.6
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Swanson 8.0
fighter Diaz 8.7
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Swanson
legend Diaz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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