UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Swanson vs Aldo

2,134

CageRank

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
73% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,308

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much better takedown defense 9.5 vs 7.4 More than 25% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 30 years vs 33 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Cub Swanson
Significantly better submission offense 7.3 vs 6.6 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.9 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Swanson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 11:16, how much damage will he do? Aldo Swanson
Significant Strikes55
Aldo's good striking offense may be a factor against Swanson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 101 Significant Strikes in 11:16
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aldo's average takedown offense may be a factor against Swanson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:16
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Swanson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cub
Swanson
In 11:16, how much damage will he do? Swanson Aldo
Significant Strikes38
Swanson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 101 Significant Strikes in 11:16
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Swanson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:16
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Swanson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Swanson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Swanson is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Swanson 8.6
Great striking by Aldo
76 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Edgar
51 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Florian
38 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Swanson 8.3
Great takedowns by Swanson
1 takedown Jul 06, 2013 vs Siver
2 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Poirier
2 takedowns Jan 28, 2012 vs Roop

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Swanson 8.4
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Swanson 7.3
Great submissions by Swanson
Round 3 Nov 18, 2009 vs Franchi
Round 3 Feb 23, 2008 vs Walker
Round 1 Mar 24, 2007 vs Lee

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Swanson 8.0
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 7, 2009WEC 41
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XR1 KO
1,9181,960
1,8742,004
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Swanson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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