UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Swanson vs Cerrone

2,134

CageRank

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
60% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

2,206

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 7.3 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.0 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 9.0 vs 7.4 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
A lot taller 183 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 169 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Cub Swanson
Significantly harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 8.0 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Swanson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 9:33, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Swanson
Significant Strikes50
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Swanson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:33
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Cerrone's average takedown offense may be a factor against Swanson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:33
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Swanson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cub
Swanson
In 9:33, how much damage will he do? Swanson Cerrone
Significant Strikes50
Swanson's average striking offense is matched by Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:33
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Swanson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:33
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Swanson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Swanson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Swanson is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Swanson 8.6
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Swanson 8.3
Great takedowns by Swanson
1 takedown Jul 06, 2013 vs Siver
2 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Poirier
2 takedowns Jan 28, 2012 vs Roop

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Swanson 8.4
Great knockouts by Swanson
Round 3 Jul 06, 2013 vs Siver
Round 1 Sep 22, 2012 vs Oliveira
Round 2 Jun 22, 2012 vs Pearson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Swanson 7.3
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Swanson 8.0
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Swanson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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