UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Swanson vs Lee

2,134

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Swanson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
78% chance Swanson
WILL WIN

1,915

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Cub Swanson
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.0 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.0 vs 7.3 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better submission offense 7.3 vs 6.5 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly younger 33 years vs 40 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 144 lbs vs 142 lbs Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Longer reach 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Tommy Lee
Significantly better takedown defense 8.3 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 8.3 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Longer winning streak 4 fights vs 3 fights Around 35% longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Swanson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lee’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cub
Swanson
In 12:10, how much damage will he do? Swanson Lee
Significant Strikes54
Swanson's average striking offense is matched by Lee's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 109 Significant Strikes in 12:10
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Swanson's average takedown offense is matched by Lee's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:10
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Swanson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Swanson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Swanson is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Lee on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Swanson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tommy
Lee
In 12:10, how much damage will he do? Lee Swanson
Significant Strikes39
Lee's average striking offense is matched by Swanson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 109 Significant Strikes in 12:10
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Lee's average takedown offense may be a factor against Swanson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:10
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lee is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lee is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lee has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Swanson 8.6
fighter Lee 8.1
Great striking by Swanson
43 strikes Jul 06, 2013 vs Siver
58 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs Poirier
9 strikes Sep 22, 2012 vs Oliveira

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Swanson 8.4
fighter Lee 7.0
Great knockouts by Swanson
Round 3 Jul 06, 2013 vs Siver
Round 1 Sep 22, 2012 vs Oliveira
Round 2 Jun 22, 2012 vs Pearson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Swanson 7.3
fighter Lee 6.5
Great submissions by Swanson
Round 3 Nov 18, 2009 vs Franchi
Round 3 Feb 23, 2008 vs Walker
Round 1 Mar 24, 2007 vs Lee

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Swanson 8.0
fighter Lee 7.3
Fast finishes by Swanson
744 seconds Jul 06, 2013 vs Siver
160 seconds Sep 22, 2012 vs Oliveira
554 seconds Jun 22, 2012 vs Pearson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 24, 2007WEC 26
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
XDEC
1,8431,865
1,8961,812
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Swanson
legend Lee
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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