UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - St. Pierre vs Jones

2,455

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
St. Pierre

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
61% chance St. Pierre
WILL WIN

2,377

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Georges St. Pierre
Significantly stronger takedown offense 10.0 vs 9.4 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.8 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 9.7 vs 9.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 193 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
A lot taller 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% taller
Significantly better submission offense 8.2 vs 7.6 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Heavier 205 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Heavier hands 8.5 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 29 years vs 35 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer winning streak 13 fights vs 12 fights Around 10% longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Stronger jaw 9.7 vs 9.4 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
St. Pierre on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Georges
St. Pierre
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? St. Pierre Jones
Significant Strikes61
St. Pierre's excellent striking offense is matched by Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
St. Pierre's excellent takedown offense is matched by Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
St. Pierre has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
St. Pierre is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
St. Pierre has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against St. Pierre’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Jones St. Pierre
Significant Strikes68
Jones's excellent striking offense is matched by St. Pierre's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Jones's excellent takedown offense is matched by St. Pierre's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter St. Pierre 9.3
fighter Jones 9.6
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter St. Pierre 10.0
fighter Jones 9.4
Great takedowns by St. Pierre
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Hendricks
7 takedowns Nov 17, 2012 vs Condit
2 takedowns Apr 30, 2011 vs Shields

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter St. Pierre 8.2
fighter Jones 8.6
Great knockouts by Jones
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
Round 3 Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Round 1 Aug 01, 2010 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter St. Pierre 7.6
fighter Jones 8.2
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter St. Pierre 8.3
fighter Jones 8.9
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend St. Pierre
legend Jones
Read More
St. Pierre vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Jones vs Silva
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 8 comments.
I think jon jones would really win
Regardless of weight Jon Jones has a lot more control over the wrestling aspect. This site doesn't really take into account that styles make fights.
No doubt about it. If anything Jon Jones faced better wrestlers like Chael Sonnen, Rashad Evens and Daniel Cormier. I remember when he fought rampage and you may be able to watch it in the highlights. Jon Jones goes for a high spinning back kick leaving him venerable to be taken down and as Rampage attempts to go for the takedown Jon Jones does the most inhuman motion and does the fastest sprawl I have ever seen.
You are an idiot, this has nothing to do with race you fool. If you bothered to look at all the match ups on here you would see it's a cold algorithm that works it all out based on statistics. One thing though is it seems that weight is not included in this algorithm. My guess is it's only meant for fights in the same weight class and they didn't consider stupid match ups like this. It has nothing to do with race though you fool, this site also claims Jon Jones beats Cain! Get it? So stop cherry picking and you will find tons of stupid ones where it says the black guy will win when he is smaller also. Race isn't part of the algorithm. It has Demetrious beating Stipe Miocic also. http://cagerank.com/G0cl.G0eI/Demetrious-Johnson-vs-Stipe-Miocic So stop being a fool looking for racism where it clearly isn't. Use your brain more, all that is at play on this site is an algorithm that doesn't take into account the weight of the fighters. Get over it
I feel like the calculator/algorithm or whatever it is, should take some account of weight , off season weight, strength (maybe based on some {weight class, lifting numbers -calculated speed of striking over and over on videos-, strength coach} equation). And maybe the ability to take on bigger opponents (minowaman, manhoef would benefit from that) based on history of fights ? Talking about history, controversial decisions (gsp hendricks...) could have some impact. Also not sure if I saw winning streaks taken into consideration here. And what about southpaw/orthodox and people who are good about both? (wouldn't apply in weidman-silva case, but may be interesting). In the end I think the skills > size (within some interval of athleticism-endurance-strength-size, rousey fedor, wanderlei aldo would be no match), approach is not flawed. IMO Jones would beat Lesnar, for example.
Jones would decimate GSP.
Yeah, the favoritism due to the Caucasians users on this site isn't blatantly obvious here ... there's no way in Hell GSP is doing anything to Bones ... ever....
You can't make predictions based on statistics alone. Especially when the context is completely wrong. For a starter it is almost 40 lbs weight difference between GSP and JJ. JJ would use GSP as a punching bag ...
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