UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - St. Pierre vs Nelson

2,455

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
St. Pierre

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
91% chance St. Pierre
WILL WIN

2,061

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Georges St. Pierre
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 10.0 vs 8.4 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 10.0 vs 8.7 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.1 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger jaw 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.8 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Gunnar Nelson
Much better submission offense 9.4 vs 7.6 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly fast finishes 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly younger 28 years vs 36 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
St. Pierre on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Georges
St. Pierre
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? St. Pierre Nelson
Significant Strikes91
St. Pierre's excellent striking offense will dominate Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns6
St. Pierre's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
St. Pierre has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
St. Pierre is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
St. Pierre has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against St. Pierre’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gunnar
Nelson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nelson St. Pierre
Significant Strikes32
Nelson's average striking offense won't be a factor against St. Pierre's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nelson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against St. Pierre's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter St. Pierre 9.3
fighter Nelson 8.5
Great striking by St. Pierre
101 strikes Nov 16, 2013 vs Hendricks
85 strikes Apr 30, 2011 vs Shields
45 strikes Nov 18, 2006 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter St. Pierre 10.0
fighter Nelson 8.7
Great takedowns by St. Pierre
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Hendricks
7 takedowns Nov 17, 2012 vs Condit
2 takedowns Apr 30, 2011 vs Shields

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter St. Pierre 8.2
fighter Nelson 7.1
Great knockouts by St. Pierre
Round 4 Jan 31, 2009 vs Penn
Round 2 Nov 18, 2006 vs Hughes
Round 2 Nov 19, 2005 vs Sherk

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter St. Pierre 7.6
fighter Nelson 9.4
Great submissions by Nelson
Round 1 Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
Round 1 Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
Round 1 Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter St. Pierre 8.3
fighter Nelson 9.0
Fast finishes by Nelson
261 seconds Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
231 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
171 seconds Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend St. Pierre
legend Nelson
Read More
St. Pierre vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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