UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - St. Pierre vs Serra

2,455

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
St. Pierre

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
97% chance St. Pierre
WILL WIN

1,876

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Georges St. Pierre
Much stronger takedown offense 10.0 vs 8.1 Around 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much longer reach 193 cm vs 173 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better takedown defense 10.0 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Much taller 178 cm vs 168 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly stronger jaw 9.4 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.3 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 35 years vs 42 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Matt Serra
From what we can tell, Georges St. Pierre dominates Matt Serra in every way.
St. Pierre on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Serra’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Georges
St. Pierre
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? St. Pierre Serra
Significant Strikes92
St. Pierre's excellent striking offense will dominate Serra's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
St. Pierre's excellent takedown offense will dominate Serra's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
St. Pierre has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
St. Pierre is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
St. Pierre has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Serra on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against St. Pierre’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Matt
Serra
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Serra St. Pierre
Significant Strikes33
Serra's average striking offense won't be a factor against St. Pierre's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Serra's average takedown offense won't be a factor against St. Pierre's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Serra is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Serra is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Serra is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter St. Pierre 9.3
fighter Serra 8.5
Great striking by St. Pierre
101 strikes Nov 16, 2013 vs Hendricks
85 strikes Apr 30, 2011 vs Shields
45 strikes Nov 18, 2006 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter St. Pierre 10.0
fighter Serra 8.1
Great takedowns by St. Pierre
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Hendricks
7 takedowns Nov 17, 2012 vs Condit
2 takedowns Apr 30, 2011 vs Shields

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter St. Pierre 8.2
fighter Serra 7.3
Great knockouts by St. Pierre
Round 4 Jan 31, 2009 vs Penn
Round 2 Nov 18, 2006 vs Hughes
Round 2 Nov 19, 2005 vs Sherk

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter St. Pierre 7.6
fighter Serra 7.5
Great submissions by St. Pierre
Round 2 Dec 29, 2007 vs Hughes
Round 1 Aug 20, 2005 vs Trigg
Round 1 Jan 29, 2005 vs Strasser

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter St. Pierre 8.3
fighter Serra 8.2
Fast finishes by St. Pierre
594 seconds Dec 29, 2007 vs Hughes
385 seconds Nov 18, 2006 vs Hughes
473 seconds Nov 19, 2005 vs Sherk
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 19, 2008UFC 83
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
DECX
2,1501,905
2,1701,886
April 7, 2007UFC 69
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
DECX
2,1381,819
2,0521,905
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend St. Pierre
legend Serra
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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