UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - St. Pierre vs Alves

2,455

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
St. Pierre

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
91% chance St. Pierre
WILL WIN

2,049

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Georges St. Pierre
Much stronger takedown offense 10.0 vs 7.9 More than 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 10.0 vs 8.6 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission offense 7.6 vs 6.9 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better striker 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger jaw 9.4 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Thiago Alves
Younger 33 years vs 35 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
St. Pierre on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alves’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Georges
St. Pierre
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? St. Pierre Alves
Significant Strikes92
St. Pierre's excellent striking offense will dominate Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns6
St. Pierre's excellent takedown offense will dominate Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
St. Pierre has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
St. Pierre is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
St. Pierre has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Alves on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against St. Pierre’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thiago
Alves
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Alves St. Pierre
Significant Strikes48
Alves's excellent striking offense is matched by St. Pierre's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Alves's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against St. Pierre's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alves is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alves is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alves is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter St. Pierre 9.3
fighter Alves 9.0
Great striking by St. Pierre
101 strikes Nov 16, 2013 vs Hendricks
85 strikes Apr 30, 2011 vs Shields
45 strikes Nov 18, 2006 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter St. Pierre 10.0
fighter Alves 7.9
Great takedowns by St. Pierre
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Hendricks
7 takedowns Nov 17, 2012 vs Condit
2 takedowns Apr 30, 2011 vs Shields

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter St. Pierre 8.2
fighter Alves 8.0
Great knockouts by St. Pierre
Round 4 Jan 31, 2009 vs Penn
Round 2 Nov 18, 2006 vs Hughes
Round 2 Nov 19, 2005 vs Sherk

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter St. Pierre 7.6
fighter Alves 6.9
Great submissions by St. Pierre
Round 2 Dec 29, 2007 vs Hughes
Round 1 Aug 20, 2005 vs Trigg
Round 1 Jan 29, 2005 vs Strasser

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter St. Pierre 8.3
fighter Alves 8.3
Fast finishes by Alves
362 seconds Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
334 seconds Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan
145 seconds Nov 19, 2005 vs Chalangov
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 11, 2009UFC 100
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
R1 KOX
2,2462,161
2,2842,123
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend St. Pierre
legend Alves
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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