UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Oliveira vs Swanson

2,002

CageRank

WINNER
Swanson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
68% chance Swanson
WILL WIN

2,134

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Cub Swanson
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.1 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.6 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Advantages for Charles Oliveira
Much better submission offense 9.4 vs 7.3 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better takedown defense 8.4 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much taller 180 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.0 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly longer reach 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 27 years vs 33 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Swanson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Oliveira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cub
Swanson
In 11:54, how much damage will he do? Swanson Oliveira
Significant Strikes54
Swanson's average striking offense is matched by Oliveira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 107 Significant Strikes in 11:54
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Swanson's average takedown offense is matched by Oliveira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:54
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Swanson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Swanson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Swanson is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Oliveira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Swanson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Charles
Oliveira
In 11:54, how much damage will he do? Oliveira Swanson
Significant Strikes51
Oliveira's average striking offense is matched by Swanson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 107 Significant Strikes in 11:54
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Oliveira's average takedown offense may be a factor against Swanson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:54
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Oliveira is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Oliveira has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Oliveira is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Swanson 8.6
fighter Oliveira 8.6
Great striking by Oliveira
42 strikes Jun 01, 2012 vs Brookins
6 strikes Jan 28, 2012 vs Wisely
35 strikes Sep 15, 2010 vs Escudero

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Swanson 8.3
fighter Oliveira 8.7
Great takedowns by Oliveira
1 takedown Jun 01, 2012 vs Brookins
1 takedown Jan 28, 2012 vs Wisely
2 takedowns Sep 15, 2010 vs Escudero

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Swanson 8.4
fighter Oliveira 7.1
Great knockouts by Swanson
Round 3 Jul 06, 2013 vs Siver
Round 1 Sep 22, 2012 vs Oliveira
Round 2 Jun 22, 2012 vs Pearson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Swanson 7.3
fighter Oliveira 9.4
Great submissions by Oliveira
Round 2 Jun 01, 2012 vs Brookins
Round 1 Jan 28, 2012 vs Wisely
Round 3 Sep 15, 2010 vs Escudero

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Swanson 8.0
fighter Oliveira 8.8
Fast finishes by Oliveira
462 seconds Jun 01, 2012 vs Brookins
103 seconds Jan 28, 2012 vs Wisely
41 seconds Aug 01, 2010 vs Elkins
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 22, 2012UFC 152
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
R2 SUBX
2,0131,939
1,9532,000
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Swanson
legend Oliveira
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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