UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Oliveira vs Stephens

2,002

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Oliveira

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
53% chance Oliveira
WILL WIN

1,978

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Charles Oliveira
Much better submission offense 9.4 vs 6.5 Around 45% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.0 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Longer reach 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 28 years vs 32 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Slightly better striker 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Advantages for Jeremy Stephens
Much heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.1 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.6 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Oliveira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Stephens’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Charles
Oliveira
In 12:02, how much damage will he do? Oliveira Stephens
Significant Strikes47
Oliveira's average striking offense won't be a factor against Stephens's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 12:02
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Oliveira's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Stephens's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:02
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Oliveira is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Oliveira has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Oliveira is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Stephens on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Oliveira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jeremy
Stephens
In 12:02, how much damage will he do? Stephens Oliveira
Significant Strikes53
Stephens's average striking offense is matched by Oliveira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 12:02
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Stephens's average takedown offense is matched by Oliveira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:02
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Stephens has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Stephens is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Stephens is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Oliveira 8.6
fighter Stephens 8.5
Great striking by Oliveira
42 strikes Jun 01, 2012 vs Brookins
6 strikes Jan 28, 2012 vs Wisely
35 strikes Sep 15, 2010 vs Escudero

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Oliveira 8.7
fighter Stephens 8.0
Great takedowns by Oliveira
1 takedown Jun 01, 2012 vs Brookins
1 takedown Jan 28, 2012 vs Wisely
2 takedowns Sep 15, 2010 vs Escudero

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Oliveira 7.1
fighter Stephens 8.2
Great knockouts by Stephens
Round 1 Nov 09, 2013 vs Mariano Bezerra
Round 3 Jan 01, 2011 vs Davis
Round 2 Jan 23, 2008 vs Miller

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Oliveira 9.4
fighter Stephens 6.5
Great submissions by Oliveira
Round 2 Jun 01, 2012 vs Brookins
Round 1 Jan 28, 2012 vs Wisely
Round 3 Sep 15, 2010 vs Escudero

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Oliveira 8.8
fighter Stephens 8.0
Fast finishes by Oliveira
462 seconds Jun 01, 2012 vs Brookins
103 seconds Jan 28, 2012 vs Wisely
41 seconds Aug 01, 2010 vs Elkins
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 12, 2014TUF 20 Finale
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Oliveira
legend Stephens
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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