UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Hendricks vs Alves

2,259

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Hendricks

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
77% chance Hendricks
WILL WIN

2,049

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Johny Hendricks
Much stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 7.9 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly heavier hands 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Thiago Alves
Better submission offense 6.9 vs 6.7 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Slightly taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Slightly longer reach 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Hendricks on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alves’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Johny
Hendricks
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Hendricks Alves
Significant Strikes90
Hendricks's excellent striking offense will dominate Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Hendricks's good takedown offense may be a factor against Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hendricks has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hendricks is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hendricks has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Alves on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hendricks’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thiago
Alves
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Alves Hendricks
Significant Strikes70
Alves's excellent striking offense will dominate Hendricks's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Alves's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Hendricks's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alves is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alves is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alves is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Hendricks 9.2
fighter Alves 9.0
Great striking by Hendricks
30 strikes Mar 16, 2013 vs Condit
55 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Koscheck
2 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Fitch

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Hendricks 9.1
fighter Alves 7.9
Great takedowns by Hendricks
12 takedowns Mar 16, 2013 vs Condit
2 takedowns May 05, 2012 vs Koscheck
1 takedown Aug 06, 2011 vs Pierce

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Hendricks 8.7
fighter Alves 8.0
Great knockouts by Hendricks
Round 1 Nov 17, 2012 vs Kampmann
Round 1 Dec 30, 2011 vs Fitch
Round 2 Aug 07, 2010 vs Brenneman

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Hendricks 6.7
fighter Alves 6.9
Great submissions by Alves
Round 1 Nov 05, 2011 vs Abedi
Round 1 Nov 20, 2004 vs Chambers

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Hendricks 8.7
fighter Alves 8.3
Fast finishes by Hendricks
46 seconds Nov 17, 2012 vs Kampmann
12 seconds Dec 30, 2011 vs Fitch
340 seconds Aug 07, 2010 vs Brenneman
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Hendricks
legend Alves
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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