UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Hendricks vs Story

2,259

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Hendricks

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
82% chance Hendricks
WILL WIN

1,994

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Johny Hendricks
Much heavier hands 8.7 vs 7.4 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 9.2 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Rick Story
Much better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.7 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Longer reach 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger jaw 9.5 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Slightly taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Hendricks on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Story’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Johny
Hendricks
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Hendricks Story
Significant Strikes81
Hendricks's excellent striking offense will dominate Story's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Hendricks's good takedown offense may be a factor against Story's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hendricks has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hendricks is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hendricks has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Story on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hendricks’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rick
Story
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Story Hendricks
Significant Strikes62
Story's good striking offense is matched by Hendricks's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Story's excellent takedown offense will dominate Hendricks's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Story is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Story is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Story has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Hendricks 9.2
fighter Story 8.8
Great striking by Hendricks
30 strikes Mar 16, 2013 vs Condit
55 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Koscheck
2 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Fitch

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Hendricks 9.1
fighter Story 9.2
Great takedowns by Story
2 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Ebersole
1 takedown Mar 16, 2013 vs Mulhern
4 takedowns May 28, 2011 vs Alves

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Hendricks 8.7
fighter Story 7.4
Great knockouts by Hendricks
Round 1 Nov 17, 2012 vs Kampmann
Round 1 Dec 30, 2011 vs Fitch
Round 2 Aug 07, 2010 vs Brenneman

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Hendricks 6.7
fighter Story 7.5
Great submissions by Story
Round 2 Sep 19, 2009 vs Foster
Round 1 Sep 06, 2008 vs Melendez
Round 1 Feb 23, 2008 vs Dodge

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Hendricks 8.7
fighter Story 7.8
Fast finishes by Hendricks
46 seconds Nov 17, 2012 vs Kampmann
12 seconds Dec 30, 2011 vs Fitch
340 seconds Aug 07, 2010 vs Brenneman
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 4, 2010TUF 12 Finale
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XDEC
1,9541,988
1,9092,033
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Hendricks
legend Story
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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