UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Hendricks vs Gastelum

2,259

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Hendricks

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
86% chance Hendricks
WILL WIN

1,949

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Johny Hendricks
Better striker 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 8.7 vs 7.6 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.2 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Significantly better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.7 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 25 years vs 33 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer reach 182 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Hendricks on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Johny
Hendricks
In 8:46, how much damage will he do? Hendricks Gastelum
Significant Strikes55
Hendricks's excellent striking offense will dominate Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 79 Significant Strikes in 8:46
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Hendricks's good takedown offense may be a factor against Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:46
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hendricks has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hendricks is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Hendricks has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hendricks’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 8:46, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Hendricks
Significant Strikes30
Gastelum's average striking offense won't be a factor against Hendricks's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 79 Significant Strikes in 8:46
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gastelum's good takedown offense is matched by Hendricks's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:46
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Hendricks 9.2
fighter Gastelum 8.5
Great striking by Hendricks
30 strikes Mar 16, 2013 vs Condit
55 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Koscheck
2 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Fitch

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Hendricks 9.1
fighter Gastelum 8.9
Great takedowns by Hendricks
12 takedowns Mar 16, 2013 vs Condit
2 takedowns May 05, 2012 vs Koscheck
1 takedown Aug 06, 2011 vs Pierce

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Hendricks 8.7
fighter Gastelum 7.6
Great knockouts by Hendricks
Round 1 Nov 17, 2012 vs Kampmann
Round 1 Dec 30, 2011 vs Fitch
Round 2 Aug 07, 2010 vs Brenneman

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Hendricks 6.7
fighter Gastelum 7.5
Great submissions by Gastelum
Round 1 Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
Round 1 Jul 07, 2012 vs Smallwood
Round 2 Dec 11, 2010 vs Sanchez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Hendricks 8.7
fighter Gastelum 7.9
Fast finishes by Hendricks
46 seconds Nov 17, 2012 vs Kampmann
12 seconds Dec 30, 2011 vs Fitch
340 seconds Aug 07, 2010 vs Brenneman
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 9, 2016UFC 200
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Hendricks
legend Gastelum
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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