UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Ellenberger vs Gastelum

2,075

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Ellenberger

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
67% chance Ellenberger
WILL WIN

1,949

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jake Ellenberger
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.3 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much heavier hands 8.7 vs 7.6 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission defense 9.6 vs 8.2 More than 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better striker 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Longer reach 185 cm vs 182 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Much better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.5 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 26 years vs 32 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Ellenberger on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jake
Ellenberger
In 8:43, how much damage will he do? Ellenberger Gastelum
Significant Strikes46
Ellenberger's good striking offense may be a factor against Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 78 Significant Strikes in 8:43
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Ellenberger's average takedown offense is matched by Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:43
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ellenberger has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ellenberger is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Ellenberger is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ellenberger’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 8:43, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Ellenberger
Significant Strikes31
Gastelum's average striking offense won't be a factor against Ellenberger's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 78 Significant Strikes in 8:43
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gastelum's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Ellenberger's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:43
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Ellenberger 8.7
fighter Gastelum 8.5
Great striking by Ellenberger
13 strikes Mar 16, 2013 vs Marquardt
62 strikes Feb 15, 2012 vs Sanchez
9 strikes Sep 17, 2011 vs Shields

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Ellenberger 8.7
fighter Gastelum 8.9
Great takedowns by Gastelum
1 takedown Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
3 takedowns Apr 13, 2013 vs Hall

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Ellenberger 8.7
fighter Gastelum 7.6
Great knockouts by Ellenberger
Round 1 Mar 16, 2013 vs Marquardt
Round 1 Sep 17, 2011 vs Shields
Round 2 Jan 02, 2010 vs Pyle

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Ellenberger 6.5
fighter Gastelum 7.5
Great submissions by Gastelum
Round 1 Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
Round 1 Jul 07, 2012 vs Smallwood
Round 2 Dec 11, 2010 vs Sanchez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Ellenberger 8.8
fighter Gastelum 7.9
Fast finishes by Ellenberger
180 seconds Mar 16, 2013 vs Marquardt
53 seconds Sep 17, 2011 vs Shields
322 seconds Jan 02, 2010 vs Pyle
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 15, 2014UFC 180
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Ellenberger
legend Gastelum
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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