UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Carmont vs Larkin

2,003

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Carmont

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
66% chance Carmont
WILL WIN

1,889

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Francis Carmont
Much better submission offense 7.7 vs 6.2 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.6 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly fast finishes 8.1 vs 7.6 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly longer reach 198 cm vs 185 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 191 cm vs 180 cm More than 5% taller
Heavier 205 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 9.1 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Slightly better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Advantages for Lorenz Larkin
Significantly heavier hands 8.0 vs 7.3 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 31 years vs 36 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Carmont on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Larkin’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Francis
Carmont
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Carmont Larkin
Significant Strikes51
Carmont's average striking offense is matched by Larkin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Carmont's average takedown offense is matched by Larkin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Carmont is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Carmont is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Carmont has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Larkin on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Carmont’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Lorenz
Larkin
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Larkin Carmont
Significant Strikes47
Larkin's average striking offense won't be a factor against Carmont's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Larkin's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Carmont's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Larkin is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Larkin is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Larkin has a chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Carmont 8.2
fighter Larkin 8.6
Great striking by Larkin
46 strikes Nov 06, 2013 vs Camozzi
50 strikes Jul 14, 2012 vs Lawler
65 strikes Sep 23, 2011 vs Rossborough

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Carmont 8.5
fighter Larkin 7.6
Great takedowns by Carmont
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Philippou
2 takedowns Apr 20, 2013 vs Larkin
3 takedowns Oct 29, 2011 vs Camozzi

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Carmont 7.3
fighter Larkin 8.0
Great knockouts by Larkin
Round 2 Apr 01, 2011 vs Lighty
Round 2 Feb 25, 2011 vs Cook
Round 1 Jun 12, 2010 vs Carson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Carmont 7.7
fighter Larkin 6.2
Great submissions by Carmont
Round 2 Jul 11, 2012 vs Vemola
Round 2 Apr 14, 2012 vs Cedenblad
Round 2 Sep 18, 2010 vs Zahariev

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Carmont 8.1
fighter Larkin 7.6
Fast finishes by Carmont
399 seconds Jul 11, 2012 vs Vemola
402 seconds Apr 14, 2012 vs Cedenblad
391 seconds Sep 18, 2010 vs Zahariev
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 20, 2013UFC on Fox 7
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R1 SUBX
2,0161,974
2,0601,930
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Carmont
legend Larkin
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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