UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Dunham vs Lentz

1,886

CageRank

WINNER
Lentz

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
74% chance Lentz
WILL WIN

2,069

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nik Lentz
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 8.6 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 33 years vs 35 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Evan Dunham
Significantly better takedown defense 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 178 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Better striker 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission offense 7.7 vs 7.4 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 7.7 vs 7.5 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Longer reach 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Lentz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Dunham’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nik
Lentz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Lentz Dunham
Significant Strikes87
Lentz's good striking offense may be a factor against Dunham's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Lentz's excellent takedown offense will dominate Dunham's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lentz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Lentz is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lentz has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Dunham on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lentz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Evan
Dunham
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Dunham Lentz
Significant Strikes83
Dunham's excellent striking offense will dominate Lentz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Dunham's average takedown offense is matched by Lentz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Dunham is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Dunham is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Dunham is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Lentz 8.8
fighter Dunham 9.1
Great striking by Dunham
91 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Tibau
68 strikes Jan 28, 2012 vs Lentz
28 strikes Jun 12, 2010 vs Griffin

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Lentz 9.3
fighter Dunham 8.6
Great takedowns by Lentz
4 takedowns May 18, 2013 vs Dias
10 takedowns Jan 19, 2013 vs Nunes
4 takedowns Aug 11, 2012 vs Mitsuoka

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Lentz 7.2
fighter Dunham 7.3
Great knockouts by Dunham
Round 2 Jan 28, 2012 vs Lentz
Round 1 Feb 21, 2009 vs Eklund
Round 2 Sep 13, 2008 vs Kaneshiro

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Lentz 7.4
fighter Dunham 7.7
Great submissions by Dunham
Round 3 Jan 11, 2010 vs Escudero
Round 3 Jan 22, 2009 vs Akbari
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Daoust

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Lentz 7.5
fighter Dunham 7.7
Fast finishes by Dunham
600 seconds Jan 28, 2012 vs Lentz
719 seconds Jan 11, 2010 vs Escudero
133 seconds Feb 21, 2009 vs Eklund
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 28, 2012UFC on Fox 2
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
XDEC
1,9421,980
1,9981,925
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Lentz
legend Dunham
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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