UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Johnson vs Struve

2,200

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Johnson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
77% chance Johnson
WILL WIN

1,990

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demetrious Johnson
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.3 More than 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better striker 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly better takedown defense 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Advantages for Stefan Struve
Much taller 213 cm vs 160 cm Around 35% taller
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 168 cm Around 30% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much heavier 264 lbs vs 125 lbs More than 2x heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 7.7 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.1 vs 7.2 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Slightly better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.9 Almost the same
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Struve’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demetrious
Johnson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Johnson Struve
Significant Strikes88
Johnson's good striking offense may be a factor against Struve's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Johnson's excellent takedown offense will dominate Struve's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Struve on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Stefan
Struve
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Struve Johnson
Significant Strikes45
Struve's average striking offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Struve's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Struve has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Struve is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Struve is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Johnson 8.7
fighter Struve 8.4
Great striking by Johnson
7 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Benavidez
77 strikes Sep 22, 2012 vs Benavidez
13 strikes May 28, 2011 vs Torres

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Johnson 9.2
fighter Struve 7.3
Great takedowns by Johnson
12 takedowns Jul 27, 2013 vs Moraga
5 takedowns Sep 22, 2012 vs Benavidez
5 takedowns May 28, 2011 vs Torres

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Johnson 7.2
fighter Struve 8.1
Great knockouts by Struve
Round 2 Sep 29, 2012 vs Miocic
Round 2 Feb 15, 2012 vs Herman
Round 1 Dec 11, 2010 vs McCorkle

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Johnson 7.9
fighter Struve 8.0
Great submissions by Struve
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Johnson
Round 2 Oct 01, 2011 vs Barry
Round 1 Oct 24, 2009 vs Gormley

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Johnson 7.7
fighter Struve 8.8
Fast finishes by Struve
530 seconds Sep 29, 2012 vs Miocic
65 seconds May 26, 2012 vs Johnson
532 seconds Feb 15, 2012 vs Herman
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Johnson
legend Struve
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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This is way off...
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