UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Johnson vs Nelson

2,200

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Johnson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
77% chance Johnson
WILL WIN

1,990

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demetrious Johnson
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.6 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.7 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly younger 31 years vs 41 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly better striker 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Advantages for Roy Nelson
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.2 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 7.7 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier 248 lbs vs 125 lbs Around 2x heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Much taller 183 cm vs 160 cm Around 15% taller
Significantly longer reach 185 cm vs 168 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.3 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demetrious
Johnson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Johnson Nelson
Significant Strikes87
Johnson's good striking offense may be a factor against Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Johnson's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Roy
Nelson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nelson Johnson
Significant Strikes45
Nelson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nelson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Johnson 8.7
fighter Nelson 8.4
Great striking by Johnson
7 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Benavidez
77 strikes Sep 22, 2012 vs Benavidez
13 strikes May 28, 2011 vs Torres

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Johnson 9.2
fighter Nelson 7.6
Great takedowns by Johnson
12 takedowns Jul 27, 2013 vs Moraga
5 takedowns Sep 22, 2012 vs Benavidez
5 takedowns May 28, 2011 vs Torres

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Johnson 7.2
fighter Nelson 9.4
Great knockouts by Nelson
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Kongo
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Herman
Round 1 Mar 31, 2010 vs Struve

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Johnson 7.9
fighter Nelson 6.7
Great submissions by Johnson
Round 5 Jul 27, 2013 vs Moraga
Round 3 Nov 11, 2010 vs Page
Round 2 Aug 16, 2008 vs Garza

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Johnson 7.7
fighter Nelson 9.2
Fast finishes by Nelson
123 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Kongo
51 seconds May 26, 2012 vs Herman
39 seconds Mar 31, 2010 vs Struve
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Johnson
legend Nelson
Read More
Johnson vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Nelson vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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