UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Neer vs Diaz

1,900

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
71% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Longer reach 193 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger takedown offense 7.8 vs 7.6 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Slightly taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Slightly younger 32 years vs 34 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Josh Neer
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Better takedown defense 8.2 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Neer’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 11:08, how much damage will he do? Diaz Neer
Significant Strikes81
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Neer's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 100 Significant Strikes in 11:08
Excellent
Striking
vs
Poor
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Neer's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:08
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Neer on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Josh
Neer
In 11:08, how much damage will he do? Neer Diaz
Significant Strikes44
Neer's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 100 Significant Strikes in 11:08
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Neer's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:08
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Neer has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Neer is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Neer is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.3
fighter Neer 8.4
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.8
fighter Neer 7.6
Great takedowns by Diaz
1 takedown Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis
2 takedowns Sep 16, 2009 vs Guillard
5 takedowns Sep 17, 2008 vs Neer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 7.4
fighter Neer 8.4
Great knockouts by Neer
Round 2 Oct 01, 2011 vs Wisniewski
Round 1 Jun 25, 2011 vs Juarez
Round 1 Sep 10, 2004 vs Macias

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.6
fighter Neer 7.9
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Neer 8.6
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 17, 2008UFC Fight Night 15
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
R2 KOX
1,9431,920
1,8901,973
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Neer
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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