UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Neer vs Diaz

1,900

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
81% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.4 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly harder to hit 8.4 vs 8.0 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.0 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.8 vs 9.1 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Josh Neer
From what we can tell, Nick Diaz dominates Josh Neer in every way.
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Neer’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Neer
Significant Strikes118
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Neer's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Poor
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Neer's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Neer on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Josh
Neer
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Neer Diaz
Significant Strikes72
Neer's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Neer's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Neer has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Neer is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Neer is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Neer 8.4
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Neer 7.6
Great takedowns by Diaz
1 takedown May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
1 takedown Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
3 takedowns Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Neer 8.4
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Neer 7.9
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Neer 8.6
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 26, 2006UFC 62
team
VS
team
XR3 SUB
DECX
1,9251,835
1,8631,898
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Neer
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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