UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Alvarez vs Aoki

2,231

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
53% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.7 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 8.0 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 6.1 Around 45% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.7 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 10:43, how much damage will he do? Aoki Alvarez
Significant Strikes21
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:43
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:43
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 10:43, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Aoki
Significant Strikes22
Alvarez's good striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:43
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense is matched by Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:43
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Alvarez 8.7
Great striking by Alvarez
20 strikes Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
46 strikes Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
48 strikes May 11, 2008 vs Hansen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Alvarez 9.2
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Alvarez 8.8
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Alvarez 8.1
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Alvarez 8.9
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 20, 2012Bellator 66
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR2 SUB
2,1092,255
2,1782,185
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR1 SUB
2,0722,085
2,0242,133
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Alvarez
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus