UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Alvarez vs St. Pierre

2,231

CageRank

WINNER
St. Pierre

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
78% chance St. Pierre
WILL WIN

2,455

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Georges St. Pierre
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 10.0 vs 9.0 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 10.0 vs 9.2 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Stronger jaw 9.4 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Significantly fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.6 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 33 years vs 36 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
St. Pierre on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Georges
St. Pierre
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? St. Pierre Alvarez
Significant Strikes89
St. Pierre's excellent striking offense will dominate Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
St. Pierre's excellent takedown offense will dominate Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
St. Pierre has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
St. Pierre is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
St. Pierre has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against St. Pierre’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Alvarez St. Pierre
Significant Strikes38
Alvarez's good striking offense won't be a factor against St. Pierre's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense is matched by St. Pierre's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter St. Pierre 9.3
fighter Alvarez 8.7
Great striking by St. Pierre
101 strikes Nov 16, 2013 vs Hendricks
85 strikes Apr 30, 2011 vs Shields
45 strikes Nov 18, 2006 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter St. Pierre 10.0
fighter Alvarez 9.2
Great takedowns by St. Pierre
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Hendricks
7 takedowns Nov 17, 2012 vs Condit
2 takedowns Apr 30, 2011 vs Shields

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter St. Pierre 8.2
fighter Alvarez 8.8
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter St. Pierre 7.6
fighter Alvarez 8.1
Great submissions by Alvarez
Round 2 May 06, 2010 vs Neer
Round 2 Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
Round 2 Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter St. Pierre 8.3
fighter Alvarez 8.9
Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
338 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada
455 seconds Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend St. Pierre
legend Alvarez
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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