UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Alvarez vs Neer

2,231

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Alvarez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
87% chance Alvarez
WILL WIN

1,900

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.6 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Josh Neer
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Neer’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 10:33, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Neer
Significant Strikes66
Alvarez's good striking offense may be a factor against Neer's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 95 Significant Strikes in 10:33
Good
Striking
vs
Poor
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense will dominate Neer's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:33
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Neer on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Josh
Neer
In 10:33, how much damage will he do? Neer Alvarez
Significant Strikes41
Neer's average striking offense is matched by Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 95 Significant Strikes in 10:33
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Neer's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:33
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Neer has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Neer is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Neer is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alvarez 8.7
fighter Neer 8.4
Great striking by Alvarez
20 strikes Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
46 strikes Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
48 strikes May 11, 2008 vs Hansen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alvarez 9.2
fighter Neer 7.6
Great takedowns by Alvarez
2 takedowns Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
7 takedowns May 11, 2008 vs Hansen
3 takedowns Mar 15, 2008 vs Amado

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alvarez 8.8
fighter Neer 8.4
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alvarez 8.1
fighter Neer 7.9
Great submissions by Alvarez
Round 2 May 06, 2010 vs Neer
Round 2 Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
Round 2 Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alvarez 8.9
fighter Neer 8.6
Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
338 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada
455 seconds Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 6, 2010Bellator 17
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
DECX
2,1281,887
2,1481,867
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alvarez
legend Neer
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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