UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Alvarez vs Edgar

2,231

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Alvarez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
64% chance Alvarez
WILL WIN

2,131

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 7.5 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.7 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.2 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 178 cm vs 168 cm More than 5% taller
Stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 33 years vs 35 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Frankie Edgar
Significantly better striker 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.0 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Edgar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 12:27, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Edgar
Significant Strikes49
Alvarez's good striking offense is matched by Edgar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 112 Significant Strikes in 12:27
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense is matched by Edgar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:27
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Edgar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Frankie
Edgar
In 12:27, how much damage will he do? Edgar Alvarez
Significant Strikes69
Edgar's excellent striking offense will dominate Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 112 Significant Strikes in 12:27
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Edgar's good takedown offense is matched by Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:27
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Edgar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Edgar is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Edgar has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alvarez 8.7
fighter Edgar 9.1
Great striking by Edgar
61 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Maynard
61 strikes Apr 10, 2010 vs Penn
74 strikes May 23, 2009 vs Sherk

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alvarez 9.2
fighter Edgar 9.0
Great takedowns by Alvarez
2 takedowns Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
7 takedowns May 11, 2008 vs Hansen
3 takedowns Mar 15, 2008 vs Amado

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alvarez 8.8
fighter Edgar 7.7
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alvarez 8.1
fighter Edgar 7.2
Great submissions by Alvarez
Round 2 May 06, 2010 vs Neer
Round 2 Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
Round 2 Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alvarez 8.9
fighter Edgar 7.5
Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
338 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada
455 seconds Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alvarez
legend Edgar
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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