UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Alvarez vs Kawajiri

2,231

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Alvarez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
66% chance Alvarez
WILL WIN

2,112

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.5 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Taller 178 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 33 years vs 38 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Tatsuya Kawajiri
Much harder to hit 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission offense 8.4 vs 8.0 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better takedown defense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Kawajiri’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 11:22, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Kawajiri
Significant Strikes34
Alvarez's good striking offense won't be a factor against Kawajiri's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:22
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense is matched by Kawajiri's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:22
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Kawajiri on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tatsuya
Kawajiri
In 11:22, how much damage will he do? Kawajiri Alvarez
Significant Strikes36
Kawajiri's average striking offense is matched by Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:22
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Kawajiri's excellent takedown offense will dominate Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:22
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Kawajiri is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Kawajiri has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Kawajiri is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alvarez 8.7
fighter Kawajiri 8.0
Great striking by Alvarez
20 strikes Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
46 strikes Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
48 strikes May 11, 2008 vs Hansen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alvarez 9.2
fighter Kawajiri 9.2
Great takedowns by Alvarez
2 takedowns Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
7 takedowns May 11, 2008 vs Hansen
3 takedowns Mar 15, 2008 vs Amado

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alvarez 8.8
fighter Kawajiri 7.5
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alvarez 8.1
fighter Kawajiri 8.4
Great submissions by Kawajiri
Round 1 Mar 31, 2012 vs Sanchez
Round 2 Dec 31, 2011 vs Miyata
Round 3 Sep 24, 2011 vs Hansen

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alvarez 8.9
fighter Kawajiri 8.5
Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
338 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada
455 seconds Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 21, 2008Dream 5
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR1 KO
2,0172,052
2,0721,997
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alvarez
legend Kawajiri
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus