CAGERANK PREDICTION
Who will win - Alvarez vs Kawajiri
Differences
What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much heavier hands | 8.8 | vs | 7.5 | Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders |
Better striker | 8.7 | vs | 8.0 | Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders |
Significantly fast finishes | 8.9 | vs | 8.5 | More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss |
Taller | 178 cm | vs | 170 cm | Around 5% taller |
Younger | 34 years | vs | 39 years | Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon |
Stronger jaw | 9.2 | vs | 8.9 | Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions |
Puts up a fight | 9.6 | vs | 9.3 | Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds |
Heavier | 155 lbs | vs | 144 lbs | Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control |
Advantages for Tatsuya Kawajiri
Much harder to hit | 9.5 | vs | 8.7 | Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage |
Better submission offense | 8.4 | vs | 8.0 | Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win |
Better takedown defense | 9.4 | vs | 9.0 | Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down |
Better submission defense | 9.3 | vs | 9.0 | Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap |
Alvarez on the attack
Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Kawajiri’s defensive skills
Predictions For Eddie Alvarez |
|||
---|---|---|---|
In 11:22, how much damage will he do? | Alvarez | Kawajiri | |
Significant Strikes34
Alvarez's good striking offense won't be a factor against Kawajiri's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:22 |
Good
Striking
|
vs |
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
|
Takedowns2
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense is matched by Kawajiri's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:22 |
Excellent
Takedown ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
|
If he wins, how will it go down? | |||
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout |
Excellent
Knockout ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Jaw
|
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission |
Excellent
Submission ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Resistance
|
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision |
Average
Scoring ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Scoring ability
|
Kawajiri on the attack
Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|||
---|---|---|---|
In 11:22, how much damage will he do? | Kawajiri | Alvarez | |
Significant Strikes36
Kawajiri's average striking offense is matched by Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:22 |
Average
Striking
|
vs |
Average
Blocking and avoiding
|
Takedowns2
Kawajiri's excellent takedown offense will dominate Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:22 |
Excellent
Takedown ability
|
vs |
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
|
If he wins, how will it go down? | |||
Knockout
Kawajiri is unlikely to win by knockout |
Average
Knockout ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Jaw
|
Submission
Kawajiri has a reasonable chance to win by submission |
Excellent
Submission ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Resistance
|
Decision
Kawajiri is unlikely to win by decision |
Average
Scoring ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Scoring ability
|
OFFENSE
Who’s better on the attack?
striking
Who can land devastating blows when it matters?Great striking by Alvarez
20 strikes | Oct 25, 2009 | vs Kikuno |
46 strikes | Jul 21, 2008 | vs Kawajiri |
48 strikes | May 11, 2008 | vs Hansen |
knockouts
Who's better at knocking out opponents?Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 | Apr 20, 2012 | vs Aoki |
Round 2 | Oct 21, 2010 | vs Huerta |
Round 1 | Jul 21, 2008 | vs Kawajiri |
submissions
Who can finish it on the ground?Great submissions by Kawajiri
Round 1 | Mar 31, 2012 | vs Sanchez |
Round 2 | Dec 31, 2011 | vs Miyata |
Round 3 | Sep 24, 2011 | vs Hansen |
Fast finishes
Who can end the fight faster? Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds | Apr 20, 2012 | vs Aoki |
338 seconds | Jun 19, 2009 | vs Imada |
455 seconds | Jul 21, 2008 | vs Kawajiri |
Fight History
Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
Cage Rank Over Time
See how Cage Rank changes with each fight


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Comments
Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?