UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Alvarez vs Aldo

2,231

CageRank

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
61% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,308

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Slightly younger 31 years vs 33 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.6 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.9 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 178 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 12:45, how much damage will he do? Aldo Alvarez
Significant Strikes64
Aldo's good striking offense may be a factor against Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 115 Significant Strikes in 12:45
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Aldo's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:45
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 12:45, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Aldo
Significant Strikes45
Alvarez's good striking offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 115 Significant Strikes in 12:45
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense is matched by Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:45
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Alvarez 8.7
Great striking by Aldo
76 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Edgar
51 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Florian
38 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Alvarez 9.2
Great takedowns by Alvarez
2 takedowns Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
7 takedowns May 11, 2008 vs Hansen
3 takedowns Mar 15, 2008 vs Amado

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Alvarez 8.8
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Alvarez 8.1
Great submissions by Alvarez
Round 2 May 06, 2010 vs Neer
Round 2 Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
Round 2 Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Alvarez 8.9
Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
338 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada
455 seconds Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Alvarez
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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