UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Alvarez vs Ferguson

2,231

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Alvarez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
80% chance Alvarez
WILL WIN

1,986

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.1 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.2 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Slightly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Tony Ferguson
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ferguson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 9:58, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Ferguson
Significant Strikes50
Alvarez's good striking offense may be a factor against Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 90 Significant Strikes in 9:58
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense will dominate Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:58
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Ferguson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tony
Ferguson
In 9:58, how much damage will he do? Ferguson Alvarez
Significant Strikes45
Ferguson's good striking offense may be a factor against Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 90 Significant Strikes in 9:58
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Ferguson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:58
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ferguson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ferguson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ferguson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alvarez 8.7
fighter Ferguson 8.6
Great striking by Alvarez
20 strikes Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
46 strikes Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
48 strikes May 11, 2008 vs Hansen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alvarez 9.2
fighter Ferguson 8.1
Great takedowns by Alvarez
2 takedowns Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
7 takedowns May 11, 2008 vs Hansen
3 takedowns Mar 15, 2008 vs Amado

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alvarez 8.8
fighter Ferguson 8.8
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alvarez 8.1
fighter Ferguson 7.2
Great submissions by Alvarez
Round 2 May 06, 2010 vs Neer
Round 2 Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
Round 2 Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alvarez 8.9
fighter Ferguson 8.8
Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
338 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada
455 seconds Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alvarez
legend Ferguson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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