UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Alvarez vs Melendez

2,231

CageRank

WINNER
Melendez

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
52% chance Melendez
WILL WIN

2,243

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gilbert Melendez
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.0 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.5 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Younger 33 years vs 35 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Melendez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gilbert
Melendez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Melendez Alvarez
Significant Strikes91
Melendez's excellent striking offense will dominate Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Melendez's good takedown offense is matched by Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Melendez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Melendez
Significant Strikes60
Alvarez's good striking offense is matched by Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense is matched by Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Melendez 9.3
fighter Alvarez 8.7
Great striking by Melendez
96 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
33 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
69 strikes Apr 17, 2010 vs Aoki

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Melendez 8.9
fighter Alvarez 9.2
Great takedowns by Alvarez
2 takedowns Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
7 takedowns May 11, 2008 vs Hansen
3 takedowns Mar 15, 2008 vs Amado

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Alvarez 8.8
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Melendez 6.5
fighter Alvarez 8.1
Great submissions by Alvarez
Round 2 May 06, 2010 vs Neer
Round 2 Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
Round 2 Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Alvarez 8.9
Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
338 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada
455 seconds Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 13, 2015UFC 188
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Melendez
legend Alvarez
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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