UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Alvarez vs Ebanez

2,231

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Alvarez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
96% chance Alvarez
WILL WIN

1,666

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.3 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.4 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 7.6 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 7.9 More than 20% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much stronger jaw 9.2 vs 7.8 Around 20% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Much better takedown defense 9.0 vs 7.8 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better striker 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 34 years vs 42 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.8 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Ross Ebanez
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ebanez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 5:38, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Ebanez
Significant Strikes25
Alvarez's good striking offense may be a factor against Ebanez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 51 Significant Strikes in 5:38
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense will dominate Ebanez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:38
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Ebanez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ross
Ebanez
In 5:38, how much damage will he do? Ebanez Alvarez
Significant Strikes20
Ebanez's average striking offense is matched by Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 51 Significant Strikes in 5:38
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Ebanez's good takedown offense is matched by Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:38
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ebanez is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ebanez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ebanez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alvarez 8.7
fighter Ebanez 8.2
Great striking by Alvarez
20 strikes Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
46 strikes Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
48 strikes May 11, 2008 vs Hansen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alvarez 9.2
fighter Ebanez 8.8
Great takedowns by Alvarez
2 takedowns Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
7 takedowns May 11, 2008 vs Hansen
3 takedowns Mar 15, 2008 vs Amado

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alvarez 8.8
fighter Ebanez 7.4
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alvarez 8.1
fighter Ebanez 6.3
Great submissions by Alvarez
Round 2 May 06, 2010 vs Neer
Round 2 Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
Round 2 Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alvarez 8.9
fighter Ebanez 7.6
Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
338 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada
455 seconds Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
R2 KOX
1,8991,833
1,9391,792
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alvarez
legend Ebanez
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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