UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Alvarez vs Nurmagomedov

2,231

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Alvarez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
56% chance Alvarez
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.7 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.8 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Younger 28 years vs 33 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 10:53, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes46
Alvarez's good striking offense is matched by Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:53
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:53
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 10:53, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Alvarez
Significant Strikes49
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense may be a factor against Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:53
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense is matched by Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:53
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alvarez 8.7
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
Great striking by Alvarez
20 strikes Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
46 strikes Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
48 strikes May 11, 2008 vs Hansen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alvarez 9.2
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
Great takedowns by Alvarez
2 takedowns Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
7 takedowns May 11, 2008 vs Hansen
3 takedowns Mar 15, 2008 vs Amado

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alvarez 8.8
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alvarez 8.1
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
Great submissions by Alvarez
Round 2 May 06, 2010 vs Neer
Round 2 Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
Round 2 Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alvarez 8.9
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
338 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada
455 seconds Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alvarez
legend Nurmagomedov
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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