UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Tavares vs Lombard

1,957

CageRank

WINNER
Lombard

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
83% chance Lombard
WILL WIN

2,230

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Hector Lombard
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 7.6 Around 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 9.3 vs 7.4 Around 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better submission defense 9.7 vs 8.4 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 10.0 vs 8.9 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission offense 7.4 vs 6.9 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger jaw 9.6 vs 9.1 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Brad Tavares
Significantly younger 29 years vs 39 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer reach 189 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Lombard on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Tavares’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Hector
Lombard
In 7:51, how much damage will he do? Lombard Tavares
Significant Strikes40
Lombard's good striking offense may be a factor against Tavares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 71 Significant Strikes in 7:51
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Lombard's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Tavares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:51
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lombard has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lombard is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lombard is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Tavares on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lombard’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brad
Tavares
In 7:51, how much damage will he do? Tavares Lombard
Significant Strikes36
Tavares's average striking offense is matched by Lombard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 71 Significant Strikes in 7:51
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Tavares's average takedown offense is matched by Lombard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:51
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Tavares is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Tavares is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Tavares has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Lombard 8.9
fighter Tavares 8.5
Great striking by Lombard
10 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
24 strikes Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Lombard 9.3
fighter Tavares 7.4
Great knockouts by Lombard
Round 1 Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
Round 1 Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares
Round 3 May 14, 2011 vs Vitale

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Lombard 7.4
fighter Tavares 6.9
Great submissions by Lombard
Round 2 Sep 03, 2011 vs Taylor
Round 1 Nov 20, 2009 vs Starnes
Round 4 Sep 12, 2008 vs Ebersole

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Lombard 9.4
fighter Tavares 7.6
Fast finishes by Lombard
108 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
218 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares
386 seconds Sep 03, 2011 vs Taylor
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Lombard
legend Tavares
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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