UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Tavares vs Leites

1,957

CageRank

WINNER
Leites

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
72% chance Leites
WILL WIN

2,122

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Thales Leites
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 6.9 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 7.6 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 8.3 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly longer reach 198 cm vs 189 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Brad Tavares
Significantly better striker 8.5 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 29 years vs 36 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier hands 7.4 vs 7.1 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Leites on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Tavares’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thales
Leites
In 10:11, how much damage will he do? Leites Tavares
Significant Strikes29
Leites's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Tavares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 92 Significant Strikes in 10:11
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Leites's good takedown offense is matched by Tavares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:11
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Leites is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Leites has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Leites has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Tavares on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Leites’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brad
Tavares
In 10:11, how much damage will he do? Tavares Leites
Significant Strikes33
Tavares's average striking offense won't be a factor against Leites's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 92 Significant Strikes in 10:11
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Tavares's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Leites's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:11
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Tavares is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Tavares is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Tavares has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Leites 7.9
fighter Tavares 8.5
Great striking by Tavares
45 strikes Jan 15, 2014 vs Larkin
116 strikes Mar 03, 2013 vs Fukuda
83 strikes Sep 29, 2012 vs Watson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Leites 9.1
fighter Tavares 8.3
Great takedowns by Leites
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Herman
5 takedowns Aug 03, 2013 vs Watson
3 takedowns Aug 25, 2007 vs Jensen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Leites 7.1
fighter Tavares 7.4
Great knockouts by Tavares
Round 1 Jan 01, 2011 vs Baroni
Round 1 Aug 02, 2008 vs Kauwe
Round 1 Jun 29, 2007 vs Sedano

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Leites 8.6
fighter Tavares 6.9
Great submissions by Leites
Round 2 Oct 29, 2010 vs Troeng
Round 1 Aug 25, 2007 vs Jensen
Round 3 Jul 02, 2005 vs Machado

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Leites 8.8
fighter Tavares 7.6
Fast finishes by Leites
513 seconds Oct 29, 2010 vs Troeng
147 seconds May 07, 2010 vs Taylor
227 seconds Aug 25, 2007 vs Jensen
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Leites
legend Tavares
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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