UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Tavares vs Larkin

1,957

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Tavares

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
60% chance Tavares
WILL WIN

1,889

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Brad Tavares
Significantly better submission offense 6.9 vs 6.2 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.6 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 189 cm vs 185 cm Almost the same
Slightly younger 29 years vs 31 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Lorenz Larkin
Significantly heavier hands 8.0 vs 7.4 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Tavares on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Larkin’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brad
Tavares
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Tavares Larkin
Significant Strikes62
Tavares's average striking offense is matched by Larkin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Tavares's average takedown offense is matched by Larkin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Tavares is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Tavares is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Tavares has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Larkin on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Tavares’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Lorenz
Larkin
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Larkin Tavares
Significant Strikes66
Larkin's average striking offense is matched by Tavares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Larkin's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Tavares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Larkin is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Larkin is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Larkin has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Tavares 8.5
fighter Larkin 8.6
Great striking by Larkin
46 strikes Nov 06, 2013 vs Camozzi
50 strikes Jul 14, 2012 vs Lawler
65 strikes Sep 23, 2011 vs Rossborough

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Tavares 8.3
fighter Larkin 7.6
Great takedowns by Tavares
2 takedowns Jan 15, 2014 vs Larkin
5 takedowns Sep 29, 2012 vs Watson
2 takedowns May 15, 2012 vs Yang

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Tavares 7.4
fighter Larkin 8.0
Great knockouts by Larkin
Round 2 Apr 01, 2011 vs Lighty
Round 2 Feb 25, 2011 vs Cook
Round 1 Jun 12, 2010 vs Carson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Tavares 6.9
fighter Larkin 6.2
Great submissions by Tavares
Round 2 Sep 27, 2008 vs Ferreira
Round 1 Apr 18, 2008 vs Ferrell

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Tavares 7.6
fighter Larkin 7.6
Fast finishes by Larkin
495 seconds Apr 01, 2011 vs Lighty
512 seconds Feb 25, 2011 vs Cook
174 seconds Jun 12, 2010 vs Carson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XDEC
1,9751,986
2,0261,934
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Tavares
legend Larkin
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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