UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Pickett vs Barao

1,904

CageRank

WINNER
Barao

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
84% chance Barao
WILL WIN

2,194

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Renan Barao
Much harder to hit 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 7.6 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 8.5 vs 7.6 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.3 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 7.7 vs 7.2 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly younger 30 years vs 39 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Longer reach 179 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 170 cm vs 168 cm Almost the same
Slightly heavier 134 lbs vs 125 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Brad Pickett
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.0 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Barao on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Pickett’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Renan
Barao
In 11:35, how much damage will he do? Barao Pickett
Significant Strikes78
Barao's good striking offense may be a factor against Pickett's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:35
Good
Striking
vs
Poor
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Barao's average takedown offense is matched by Pickett's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:35
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barao is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Barao has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Barao has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Pickett on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barao’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brad
Pickett
In 11:35, how much damage will he do? Pickett Barao
Significant Strikes46
Pickett's average striking offense won't be a factor against Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:35
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Pickett's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:35
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Pickett is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Pickett is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Pickett is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Barao 8.9
fighter Pickett 8.6
Great striking by Barao
36 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
85 strikes Jul 21, 2012 vs Faber
104 strikes Feb 04, 2012 vs Jorgensen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Barao 8.0
fighter Pickett 8.5
Great takedowns by Pickett
4 takedowns Apr 06, 2013 vs Easton
3 takedowns Dec 16, 2010 vs Menjivar
10 takedowns Apr 24, 2010 vs Johnson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Barao 7.7
fighter Pickett 7.2
Great knockouts by Barao
Round 2 Sep 21, 2013 vs Wineland
Round 2 Aug 13, 2009 vs Sardinha
Round 3 Nov 29, 2008 vs Pinheiro

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Barao 8.5
fighter Pickett 7.6
Great submissions by Barao
Round 4 Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
Round 1 Nov 05, 2011 vs Pickett
Round 1 Dec 16, 2010 vs Cariaso

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Barao 8.6
fighter Pickett 7.6
Fast finishes by Barao
335 seconds Sep 21, 2013 vs Wineland
1137 seconds Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
249 seconds Nov 05, 2011 vs Pickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 5, 2011UFC 138
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XDEC
1,9392,089
1,9092,118
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Barao
legend Pickett
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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